Friday, January 14, 2011
Is there STILL too much recent warming to explain by solar activity?
Actually, solar activity from 1940-2000 was the highest since 9000 BC. Most solar scientists accept that there is a close correlation between temperature and solar activity over the geologic record, so they accept that high solar activity must create a temperature forcing, but they are at the same time trying to claim that steady peak levels of this forcing CANNOT cause warming. Only if the levels KEEP going up can warming be created.
That’s impossibly stupid. It’s the same as saying that you can’t heat a pot of water by turning the burner all the way to maximum and leaving it there. No, you have to gradually turn the heat up, as if it is the act of raising the level of the flame that heats the water, rather than the level that the flame is raised to.
Alternatively, they could be silently assuming that global temperature had already equilbrated to grand maximum levels of solar forcing by 1970, so that continued grand maximum levels of solar activity should not have caused further warming, but none them has ever stated such an assumption, or made any kind of argument for it, and how could they, when the only thing we know about long term equilibration to altered forcings it that it can can take a long time, as with the centuries of warming from the depths of the Little Ice Age (when solar activity was very low) until 2000. There is no basis for arguing that these hundreds of years of natural warming had to have reached equilibrium by 1970, and a scientist certainly cannot proceed on this assumption without arguing for it.
My post shows just how many solar scientists are invoking this stupid-science as a way to say that modern warming must be due to some other cause than the sun, something like CO2 perhaps, as the people who control all the research money insist. Stupid AND corrupt, though I tone down my language a bit for Mr. Watt’s sake.